Anticipatory Responses to Predicted Disasters

A very different set of responses might be expected to for disasters that are not constant, long-anticipated threats, but rather are threats that emerge somewhat quickly, but with adequate warning for people to prepare. The prediction of a serious earthquake 1990 along the New Madrid fault in the midwestern United States illustrates some of the unique issues faced by a population dealing with a prediction of disaster.

It might surprise you to learn that the most dangerous earthquake zone in North America is not in California or Alaska, but rather in the middle of the US. There is a fault zone running near the borders of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Illinois. In 1811-1812, several of the most serious earthquakes ever to strike the U.S. occurred along this fault line. These quakes were felt over virtually the entire United States, except for the Pacific coast, and they changed the course of the Mississippi River, created new lakes, and destroyed over 150,000 acres of forest.

A catastrophic earthquake was predicted for December 3, 1990. Luckily, no earthquake occurred, and there have not been major earthquakes along this fault since. However, the prediction of a large-scale earthquake does give some picture of how people might prepare for such a disaster. The responses to this prediction give room for both hope and concern.

Local communities took this prediction seriously and sales of earthquake insurance policies soared. Many residents stockpiled water, flashlight batteries, plastic bags, and toilet paper. Some people (but not many) left the area, and in the days prior to the predicted earthquake, the news media descended on New Madrid, hoping to cover the disaster. There was no disaster, but there was considerable evidence of anticipatory stress reactions.

Anticipatory stress occurs when people react to the prediction or the expectation of a threatening situation as if they are already experiencing the threat. Anticipatory stress occurs while people are waiting in a dentist’s office, while novice skydivers are getting ready to make their first few jumps, when combat pilots are getting ready for a new mission, etc. The widespread prediction of a serious earthquake in New Mardid led to a similar reaction. There is evidence, for example, that children and adolescents in New Madrid experienced relatively mild (but nevertheless significant) symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, simply as a result of the prediction that a disaster was about to strike.

On the whole, it seems like the prediction of an imminent disaster (as opposed to a chronic but non-specific threats) has both adaptive and maladaptive effects. A credible prediction that a disaster is likely to occur can lead people to take precautions, but can also serve as a source of significant stress. The challenge here is to create disaster warnings that will increase the likelihood of adaptive responses (i.e., buying insurance, obtaining disaster response kits) without also leading to anticipatory stress