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Lesson 2: Theory and Criminal Justice Research
Data Analysis
How does evidence support a theory? Well, the observations must be examined to determine if the evidence matches your initial reasoning. This is the fourth and final part of the process: data analysis.
Data analysis is used to assist in drawing conclusions based on the data that has been collected. Most often we associate data analysis with statistics, but that does not necessarily have to be the case -- data analysis can be textual as well. After conclusions are made the theory is either given support, modified, or refuted altogether.
Note that as social scientists we can never “prove” our hypotheses to be true or false. Because we conduct research that has a certain level of probability inherent in our observations, there is always room for error. It is more accurate to talk about evidence to support or refute a hypothesis.
As we know from history, Shaw & McKay's ideas were supported initially, but further examination led to modifications of their theory, and eventually the theory fell out of scientific favor as more individual-level theories (like strain, learning, and anomie) were used and seen to better explain offending. And herein lies perhaps the most important idea relative to the Traditional Model of Science: it never ends.
Wheel of Science
The Model is sometimes also known as the "Wheel of Science," because the process is ongoing. Once conclusions are made about a theory, the theory is tested again and again. The more times it stands up to scientific rigor, the more support it gets within the discipline of criminology. And also weaker theories are exposed, and usually either change form or fall out of favor. So structurally, we often see the Traditional Model of Science diagrammed in the form demonstrated above. The process keeps going around the "wheel," continually testing ideas as to their veracity to hold up in the "real world." We test theories in different contexts, at different times, and with different subjects, all in an effort to see if our ideas about social reality are supported scientifically. If they are, then our ideas are seen as valid until shown otherwise. Notice I didn't say proven. Proving things is not a part of social science, as will be explained in the next chapter. Ideas should not be seen as valid until they have gone through this process. It is the scientific process which separates speculation from empirical fact.