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Challenge 4

Foresight-based Scenario Development

You will already work together as a group to define the challenge for one of the other groups.

  • This means that you as a group will derive a futuristic (foresight-based) scenario from the textbook case study material chosen as point of departure.
  • That scenario will then be provided to one of the other groups to address, as you will be provided a scenario developed by one of those groups.
  • In a further step, you will be asked to evaluate how the group that was given your scenario did analyze and respond to it, as you will be evaluated by the group whose scenario you were given.

To prepare, gather in your group and discuss your individual take-away from Challenge 3 (quality criteria for case studies and policy papers, and their practical relevance in homeland security).

Then, based on your Challenge 3 experience with scenario studies, review some food for thought regarding scenario development and analysis:

  • "SCENARIO (RISK ): Definition: hypothetical situation comprised of a hazard, an entity impacted by that hazard, and associated conditions including consequences when appropriate. Sample Usage: The team designed a scenario involving a terrorist attack at a plant to help assess the risk of certain types of terrorist attacks. Annotation: A scenario can be created and used for the purposes of training, exercise, analysis, or modeling as well as for other purposes. A scenario that has occurred or is occurring is an incident." (DHS Risk Lexicon. 2010 Edition, p. 33, emphases added).
  • "Scenarios are stories about the future, but their purpose is to make better decisions in the present." (Scenarios: A Explorer's Guide. The Hague: Shell International BV, 2008, p. 8) 
    • This widely used Shell study can provide you with valuable general guidance as you individually and as teams are getting prepared to undertake your scenario foresight work in this Challenge 4. It is recommended to review and use it to support your Challenge 4 work. 
  • Re-read the guidance on the individual scenario-based Challenge 3, including the revisiting of the national planning scenarios (2005) as examples of how scenarios are written in our field. 
  • For homeland security-specific scenario foresight work, review and use the guidance and tools form Strategic Foresight at FEMA, including:
    • Foresight Research and Reports
    • Foresight Toolbox
    • Other Materials
  • FEMA Foresight Workshop How-to Guide offers additional useful practical guidance for your Challenge 4 work. 
  • Alexander Siedschlag (ed.): Scenario-based Security Foresight. Special Issue, Information & Security, Volume 29, Numbers 1 & 2, 2013 (available in full text online). This volume is an example of how scenario foresight results and recommendations are summarized and presented in research-based policy papers. 

Now, as a group and based based on the options given to you by your instructor, choose a point-of-departure case from the DHS collection of Significant Cases. 

To do so,

  • review all Challenge 4 instructions and expectations so to be able to make an informed choice. 
  • read the chapter "Conclusion" from the textbook to establish a context informing your choice, based on the Challenge 3 experience and its case set;  
  • discuss your considerations carefully within your group; and
  • using the Point-of-Departure Case Choice Discussion Forum, discuss your group preference(s) with your instructor and in class before finalizing your choice.

You will use this chosen case not to re-analyze or re-narrate it, but to extrapolate from it towards a scenario, using a foresight-based approach as described in the readings above. Once again, remember:

  • "Scenarios are stories about the future, but their purpose is to make better decisions in the present."

(Scenarios: A Explorer's Guide. The Hague: Shell International BV, 2008, p. 8)


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