MANGT 515 Prospective Students
Sample Syllabus
Sample Lesson
Introduction
2.1 Reasons for Forecasting in Project Management
2.2 Forecasting Methods for Projects
2.2.1 Qualitative Forecasting Methods
2.2.2 Quantitative Forecasting Methods
Time Series Analysis
Short Term Forecasting Methods
Naïve Approach
Simple Averages
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Example of Exponential Smoothing
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Example of Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
2.3 Intermediate Term Forecasting
Example of Linear Regression
Evaluating the "Fit" of the Regression Line
2.3.2 The Correlation Coefficient (r)
2.3.3. The Standard Error of the Estimate (syx)
2.3.4 Limitations in Forecasting Using Linear Regression
2.3.4 Limitations in Forecasting Using Linear Regression (continued)
2.4 Forecasting the Project End Conditions
2.5 S-curve Forecasting
2.6 Technological Forecasting*

2.6 Technological Forecasting*

Technological Forecasting is defined as a process of predicting future characteristics and timing of technology. As the rate of change of technological capabilities are uncertain, It is imperative that project mangers use some methods to forecast future technology so that the project product that is developed using current technologies is not rendered obsolete. Two types of methods can be used for forecasting technology: Numeric-based Technological Forecasting Techniques and Judgment-based Technological Forecasting Techniques.

Numeric-Based Technological Forecasting Techniques

Numeric-based technological forecasting techniques include:

  1. Trend extrapolation that projects trend of data into the future
  2. Growth curves include invention, introduction and innovation, diffusion and growth, and maturity
  3. Envelope curves are a combination of trend extrapolation and growth curves
  4. Substitution model considers competing technologies developing over time

Judgment-Based Technological Forecasting Techniques

Judgment-based Technological Forecasting Techniques include:

  1. Monitoring is to track innovation to stay abreast of developing technologies
  2. Network analysis
    1. Explores applications of current research
    2. Determines how much research is needed to arrive at desired capability.
  3. Scenarios
    1. Forecast technology along with environment
    2. Can be used to forecast results of adopting a technological change
  4. Morphological analysis
    1. Systematically search for improvements in technology
    2. Plot technology vs. alternatives to achieve the technology
  5. Relevance trees look at a goal through a hierarchy of alternative tasks
  6. Delphi method
    1. Individuals in a group make anonymous estimates of when technology will be available
    2. Results fed back to the group and the process goes through a few iterations
  7. Cross-impact analysis is like the Delphi method, but model is stochastic

The particular model to be used should be appropriate for the environment of the firm and at a suitable cost.

You have now reached the end of Lesson 2. You should have a better understanding of forecasting and the forecasting methods available to you as a project manager. You should also have completed your reading assignment as specified on your syllabus. At this time, return to your syllabus and complete any activities for this lesson. The next lesson will focus on cost estimation in project, including methods to ensure cost control.

Please Note: Section 2.6 was adapted from Meredith, J. R., and Mantel, S. J. (1989). Project Management: A Managerial Approach. 2nd Edition. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

References